'Chhaiyya Chhaiyya', the Nilgiri Mountain Railway

The Nilgiri Mountain Railway yesterday completed 100 years of its rich history. We were lucky enough to travel on it in August this year and I would recommend this trip to everybody. It leaves early in the morning from Mettupalayam and takes slightly over four hours to complete its 46 km journey thru the verdant hills and tunnels to finally reach Ooty at around mid-day. A steam engine pushed us upto Coonoor, from where it was the turn of a diesel engine to make the final stretch upto Ooty. What was interesting was the fact that the steam engine which initially huffed and puffed to take us up to Coonoor was built in Winterthur, Switzerland according to the inscription on it!

Here is a picture taken at one of the stops along the route:


What irritates is that this train has come to be known as the 'Chhaiyya Chhaiyya' train as if that were its only raison d'etre. In spite of the fact that three years back, UNESCO has awarded it world heritage status.

Unlike the Darjeeling Mountain Railway, which is run by an autonomous body, the NMR has no administrative set-up — it is just another maintenance assignment of the Salem division. "Unless a separate administrative team, delinked from the Southern Railway, is set up and a special officer appointed to exclusively look after the NMR, it will continue to be neglected," says a senior railway official.

A really sad state of affairs. We as Indians have to learn how to look after our own heritage and the NMR is a part of it.

Final Solution

If you haven't been able to watch this documentary yet, go ahead and find a copy, download it via bittorrent or just watch it on google video. Especially if you are a Gujarati, like I am, this is incumbent upon you, to watch it with the advantage of hindsight.

I recommend this documentary, not because I agree with the film maker's objectivity or interpretation of what transpired in Gujarat in 2002. But because I feel that no matter how you interpret it, what happened was very wrong. And that watching some of it through your very own eyes will perhaps make you realize the horror of what happened.Perhaps it will make you pause and reflect on how this ghastliness came to pass. And think about what WE can do to ensure that this does not ever happen again.

Because we can not change what has happened but we can work towards eradicating the causes that led us to this shameful chapter of our history. And because, just maybe, it will make some of us shy away from the politics of hate and work towards finding other solutions to our age old problems.

And mostly because 'those who forget history are condemned to relive it'.

Education is the key, or is it?

James Michener has been one of my favorite authors thru the years. I have read most of his novels. I love the way he builds a story around that which has permanence, the place, not the people. Although the characters he develops are vivid and grip all your attention in their journey thru their lives. The only gripe I have against him is that he perhaps developed a dislike for Indians during his days in the South Pacific, specifically Fiji. And this prevented him from learning or writing about India in particular.

It was while reading his novel 'The Covenant' that I actually realized that education was the key for uplifting the disadvantaged classes of a society. The University of South Africa is a distance learning institution. And because of its nature, remained open to all throughout the dark days of apartheid. Nelson Mandela, Desmond Tutu, and Robert Mugabe are just some of its notable alumni who made their mark on history.

Reading 1conoclast's post here made me realize something else. That the powers that be would stoop to anything to perpetuate the status quo benefiting them. It doesn't matter to them if they are trampling on the human rights of children. It doesn't matter to them if what they are doing is against basic human decency. In fact, they have become so used to this caste based profiling that a principal of a municipal school says: “We have been writing sub-castes on progress cards for over 30 years now. We have chamars, bhangis, vankars and wagri children, among others. What difference does it make whether we write their castes or not? We anyway know each other’s castes.”

If you start sowing the seeds of discrimination at such an early age, can you expect your next generation to remain free of caste based prejudices? In fact, I have to question your very motives for doing this.

1conoclast is correct in saying that this is not what our founding fathers envisaged for India.

I too feel nauseated.

The Sum of All (economic) Fears

The FIIs are withdrawing money from India because they need it to meet margin requirements back home. This demand for the USD has meant a weakening in the INR-USD exchange rate, which is actually good for the Indian economy. Because they are getting less and therefore are repatriating less bucks for their rupees.

The Indian economy is not as export oriented as China's or South Korea's, and that is why perhaps we will not experience the full impact of the US recession that those economies will. The US system has so far been able to stave off the worst, yet there is still a chance that the worst case scenario could be realized. Here is a snippet of a crisis scenario from the September 19 Martensen Report:

Day 1:  Four major banks are suddenly revealed to be insolvent, and money begins to be withdrawn from these banks at increasing rates. That night, foreign investors quietly begin to retreat from a stricken US banking system, and the withdrawals spread beyond the four stricken banks. As bank servers begin to log more and more withdrawals, alarm bells go off, and late-night emergency meetings are convened. 

Day 2:  The next morning, US government and banking officials assure the world that everything is fine and that a new program has been put in place guaranteeing the solvency of the US banking system. Behind the scenes foreign money continues to flee as wealthier individuals and institutions with a better view of the real state of affairs retreat to the safety of their home countries. 

Days 3-7:  The expatriated money is converted into anything other than dollars, resulting in a dollar slump that confuses all but the most astute of observers. Simultaneously, US interest rates begin to climb, as US bonds are sold off in preference for non-US assets. 

Day 14:  Fearing a massive run on the dollar and a collapse of the capital markets, the US imposes an emergency order, requiring a 2-week delay in money flows out of the country. This is, of course, nothing more than a capital control, a favored but ultimately inflammatory tactic of countries suffering a currency run. Around this time, a growing proportion of domestic bank account holders realize that, because of the interlocked nature of the banking system, simply moving money from one bank to ‘a better one’ is not a fool-proof strategy. 

Days 15-21:  Over the next week, cash is demanded with increasing frequency, exacerbating the troubles of an already beleaguered banking system. A cash shortage rapidly develops, leading the Treasury Department to make a high profile show (on television, of course) of armored trucks pulling up to banks with large bags of cash. Assurances are made that everything is fine and that there is enough cash for everyone. Commentators on television make snide comments about the people lining up for cash, suggesting that they are over-reacting. But the Treasury is caught off guard, and even a 24/7 printing regimen cannot keep pace with cash withdrawals.

Day 25:  Currency controls are announced over the weekend, limiting cash withdrawals to no more than $250 over every 48 hour period. A few days later, the government announces that the US banking system, and, by extension, the US stock markets, will be closed for a period of two weeks while the situation is “evaluated” and solutions are identified. 

Day 50+:  A month later, the markets finally open up again, with the Dow down several thousand points, the dollar worth 50% of its pre-close price, and people everywhere suddenly trying to convert their cash holdings into things. Rampant inflation ensues. The dollar continues to fall.

Remember that this is a worst case scenario. The chances of this actually coming to pass are remote. But if it does happen, the shock waves will be felt around the world and people everywhere will be affected.

P.S. Gold had a trading range in excess of a hundred dollars yesterday, 10-10-2008, breaking all previous records.

Drenched in Bangalore

It is exactly six weeks today to this incident and now I can look back at it in a more rational way. So this is how it happened:

We are outside the Forum mall in Bangalore and trying to hire an auto to take us back to our hotel. I enquire in broken english and hindi if the auto driver can take us to *** hotel in ShantiNagar.

'ShantiNagar? OK, OK.'
'*** Hotel, ShantiNagar.'
'OK, OK. 60Rupees, OK?'
'OK.'

And so we get into the auto and after about 20 minutes of maneuvering, the auto stops at a cross roads and the driver inquires the shopkeepers around there where the *** hotel is located. He finds out that it is about a kilometer and half away from where we are standing. So he informs me:

'Forty rupees more, Sir, very far.'
'Why? I told you I wanted to go to the *** hotel right from the beginning.'
'This ShantiNagar. Sixty rupees here only.'

So we started arguing and I got out of the auto just as a heavy downpour started. Both of us kept on arguing heatedly through the downpour and got fully drenched. In the end, the auto driver requested me to get back into the auto as it was raining heavily. But would I budge? Of course not, I wanted to make a point. So I located a traffic policeman on duty and brought him in to solve the problem. After listening to both sides, he dispensed justice and told the auto driver to drop me back exactly from where he picked me up and told me not to pay him anything. He was getting drenched as well and immediately ran away to find shelter. Leaving me fuming.

Did I want to go back to the Forum Mall? After pondering on this for a few minutes, I got back into the auto and told him to locate the hotel and drop me there, which he did. I paid him the full 100 rupees that he had been asking for. He was actually surprised as he was not expecting this and thanked me profusely before driving away.

This incident raises two questions. Why can't Bangalore autos ply according to the meter? Every auto seems to have one. Perhaps people have grown accustomed to bargaining for the fare in advance, instead of relying on the meter. More importantly, why did I make such a fuss if I, in the end, paid him what he had been asking for?

The Vijaynagara Empire

The love of reading has to be instilled in children at a very early age. And the best way to do this is by providing easy access to books. My father was an avid reader and he had a good personal collection of fiction as well as non-fiction, all in Gujarati. That was how I was introduced to the world of books.

Sandeep's post about the Vijaynagar empire and Madhava Vidyaranya instantly took me back to my childhood. Because I remember reading the Vijaynagar series of historical novels by GunvantRai Acharya. Harihar, Bukka, Madhav and Sayana are larger than life characters for me. And I have always been fascinated by the lone Hindu Empire that sprung up in the south and defied the Muslim conquerors constantly trying to expand their foothold in the south, for two and a half centuries.

What is even more remarkable about this empire is that although it sprang out of a need to protect the Hindu way of life, it was not intolerant of its Muslim subjects. And in fact, quite a few were employed at the courts and in the armies, especially of the later rulers.

Is this it?

Jimmy boy has shouted 'this is it' so many times that the warning has lost the impact and the urgency. Still it is time we took stock of the current market situation especially regarding gold, the king of commodities.

"There is only a relatively small group of investors who very seriously believe that there is a high level of risk that the (financial) system could break down. You only need a relatively small group to believe this to move the price of gold. In other words, the metal's price behavior reflects the trivial obsessions of a discredited fraction of investment opinion."  -Alan Greenspan

And just what is happening out there? Rumours are flying around that Comex might default on Gold contracts and settle in cash instead of physical delievery.  Further weakness being signalled around the world financial markets and rumours of a bank holiday to give the markets some breathing space. Bernanke signalling rate cuts in an effort to calm down US markets and yet they tumble. The UK pumping 50 billion pounds into its fiscal system to shore it up and Hong Kong and Australia slashing rates to increase liquidity.

'Extaordinary' and 'Historic' are the words being used by Gordon Brown and Ben Bernanke in describing the current state of the financial system.

In the gold market if the buyer is paying the effective interest rate for committing the trade, the market is said to be in 'contango'. The 'basis' is the effective interest rate being paid. The shrinking contango and the persistent fall in the gold basis is a measure of the vanishing of gold into private hoardings according to Fekete. Well, the bad news is that the basis has taken a beating in the last few days. His arguement is that when the basis approaches zero, it is goodbye time for the world's fiat currency system.

Gold could see an exponential rise in price in case of an actual meltdown in the financial markets, due to a flight to safety by panicky participants in the world's exchanges. Because, after all, gold is the world's ultimate reserve currency.

Zardari loves India

Don't be fooled into believing that we will be seeing a sea change in Pakistan's attitude towards India, just because Zardari says so. Do not even think for a moment that the Kashmir problem can be solved just because Pakistan changes its public persona. That is exactly what he is, Zardari is the face that Pakistan presents to the world community at the moment. He does not have any control over the army, or the ISI, which are the actual policy-makers with regard to India.

And look at the context in which he is saying all those sweet nothings. Pakistan is in dire economic straits and Zardari is asking for a $100 billion aid package. Do not forget that he is the original Mr. 10 per cent. Of course he will be excited at the prospect of billions and of his personal cut from it. I am sure that is why he has that glint in his eyes. He must be wringing his hands in glee, mentally calculating his personal windfall from the aid package which Pakistan's friends are bound to come up with. He sure can say even sweeter things so that they can part with that money with a clear conscience.

After all, doesn't Pakistan have all those nukes, and can the world and especially The Friends of Pakistan let it slide into anarchy? Who said that nuclear weapons are, at best, deterrents? In the case of Pakistan, they have become a tool for blackmailing the entire world into coughing up aid and supporting a failed state.

Sic Transit Gloria Americani

The 700 billion dollar financial bailout plan has been passed and the money will soon be available to the system to purge it of toxic assets. But is that going to be enough? And what effect will it have on the world at large? And even if it is, how long will it take for the world's financial system to recover? And what are the long term ramifications it will have on America's superpower status? It is time to take a look at the larger picture.

The cause of the current financial crisis lies in the US's lack of proper financial regulation and monetary policies which have driven up inflation and sent the price of commodities skyrocketing. The US will pay the price by going into an economic recession which has already started. But this will have a domino effect on the world at large. Poor folks around the world in pursuit of a better life are already feeling the pinch and will have their dreams shattered if the world plunges into recession.

The days of a unipolar world are over. Economic might is as much essential to being a superpower as is military might. Don't get me wrong. America is going to remain a superpower and the major player on the world stage for still some time. But what has transpired in the past few years has decided its fate of being relegated to a less prominent role in the family of nations.

The US has a lot of critics and enemies around the world. And that is expected since it took on the job of the world's policeman. What has made things worse is the current meltdown in the US financial system and its reverberations being felt throughout world economies. The financial rot has spread throughout the global financial system and people the world over are feeling the pain. Vladimir Putin and German Finance Minister Peer Steinbrueck have lashed out at the US for its greed and for its irresponsible policies which have led the world to the brink of a global recession.

The current bailout plan will lead to an increase in money supply and would be inflationary in nature. Which will in turn lead to an erosion in the value of the US currency. This would lead to a long term bull market in commodities and will perpetuate the inflationary cycle. Because a currency's value in today's economy is decided by the faith the foreign holders of that currency place in it, the USD will not face a drastic weakening but a gradual reduction panned out over a long period of time.

In the long run, this will lead to the USD being replaced by a basket of currencies in major financial transactions. The USD has been the world's reserve currency and the US having the power to print as many of those as it wishes, has enjoyed economic superpower status. When it no longer has that status, its financial regulatory regime and economic policies will have to be answerable to the world at large and this will mean an end to its superpower status in the military and political sphere as well. Instead of seating at the head of the table in the family of nations, the US will have to learn how to behave sitting at a round table, where all have an equal say.

Memories....

I remember the first time I held you in my hands. You were looking at me with your tiny unfocused eyes trying to make sense of the new world around you.

And then we had to live apart for a few years. When I came to receive you guys at the airport, I remember that three year old kid asking your mum who I was, and in my mind, I made a promise to myself that we would never again stay apart, because I wanted to be around while you guys were growing up.

I remember the defiant child about to step into teenage, always testing the limits of what was allowed and consequently my patience. And I still vividly remember the dream I had of you falling off a roof and me waking up soaked in sweat.

I also remember the teenager telling me in a fit of rage, that she did not have a single happy memory about me. It really hurt. I guess it is the traumatic moments that are burnt more deeply in memory.

But I also remember you asking me for help when you needed it. And the moments when you made me feel proud. Those I will cherish till the day I die.

You have grown up and are now ready to take on the world on your own and I wish you all the best in life.

I just wish it could have been a bit different. You did not have to remove the pedestal from beneath my feet. "The job is over, thank you for your services and you may retain the title." We could have parted as friends. Instead of this pain that all of us have to go through now.