Grandstanding

Zardari is at it again.

I have written about this earlier here. And I still believe that he is just playing to the international media and trying to mollify his western benefactors by uttering platitudes. The fact remains that he has no control over either the Pakistani Army or the ISI which are the defacto policy makers regarding Pakistan's policy towards India.

Remember the Pakistani Army waging a war in Kargil without authorization from the then Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif?

For the record, India has already declared its nuclear 'no first use' policy, under Vajpayee. What Zardari has said is that he favors it, but has not declared it as state policy yet. Perhaps because he does not have the power to do so, or perhaps because he is just testing out the feelings this might invoke in his own country. Because how can one end the hatred for India, which is the raison d'etre for Pakistan? This hatred is the unifying factor that Pakistan relies on to exist as a viable state.

Maritime Piracy, then and now.

A couple of centuries back, the shores of the Southern Arabian gulf were known as the piracy coast. Merchant ships passing through the narrow Straits of Hormuz, plying between Mesopotamia and India, were prey to those pirates who would dart out of hidden coves and raid merchant shipping.

Till one day in early January 1820, when a strong sea and land expedition by the exasperated British succeeded in defeating the pirate stronghold at Ras Al-Khaimah. And led to the signing of a truce between the British and the Arab chiefs, which virtually eradicated piracy in the Gulf. The piracy coast came to be known as the Trucial coast after this truce.

With the passage of time, the Trucial Coast transformed into the Trucial States and in 1971, the seven tiny sheikhdoms which comprised it, federated into the United Arab Emirates. Today this part of the world is enjoying an economic boom and prosperity fueled by oil, trade and construction.

Vela International Marine Limited is a fully owned subsidiary of Saudi Aramco, which is based in Dubai in the U.A.E. It is engaged in the business of transporting crude oil and refined products manufactured by Saudi Aramco, to the rest of the world. It owns several Very Large Crude Carriers or super tankers as they are called. The Sirius Star is a VLCC with a capacity of carrying 2 million barrels of oil and it was yesterday hijacked off the Somali coast by pirates and has been taken to the Somali port of Eyl which is the pirates stronghold. Negotiations are reportedly underway for the safe release of the 25 crew members as well as the ship.

The Somali pirates are doing this just for the money. They have latched on to a cash cow and will not give it up easily. The failed Somali state makes the task of prevention next to impossible. India has already started playing a role in protecting our shipping, but it needs to be enhanced and co-ordinated with other friendly naval powers. Because after all, what is the purpose of a navy if it can't afford protection to merchant shipping? That is one of the primary functions of an armed force, protecting civilians. And piracy is just another form of terrorism.

How the financial markets actually work

It was autumn, and the Red Indians on the remote reservation asked their new chief if the winter was going to be cold or mild. Since he was a Red Indian chief in a modern society, he couldn't tell what the weather was going to be like.

Nevertheless, to be on the safe side, he replied to his tribe that the winter was indeed going to be cold and that the members of the village should collect firewood to be prepared.

But being a practical leader, after several days of contemplation, he got an idea.

He went to the phone booth, called the National Weather Service and asked 'Is the coming winter going to be cold?'

'It looks like this winter is going to be quite cold indeed,' the meteorologist at the weather service responded.

So the chief went back to his people and told them to collect even more firewood.

A week later, he called the National Weather Service again. 'Is it going to be a very cold winter?' 

'Yes,' the man at National Weather Service again replied, 'It's definitely going to be a very cold winter. '

The chief again went back to his people and told them to collect every scrap of wood they could find.

Two weeks later, he called the National Weather Service again. 'Are you absolutely sure that the winter is going to be very cold?'

'Absolutely' , the man replied. 'It's going to be one of the coldest winters ever. '

'How can you be so sure?' the chief asked. 

The weatherman replied, 'One of the key components of our forecast model, The Red Indians, are collecting firewood like crazy. That is how we deduced that this winter will be the coldest ever.'

And that my friends, is how the financial markets actually work!!!

h/t RamSarit

You get what you deserve

The USA has to be lauded for having a political system which can land a relatively unknown quantity like Obama to the ultimate job. Who had even heard of him a couple of years back? The US electorate got a chance to scrutinize him on the election trail and liked him and brought him to power. While In India, we are stuck with a stupid system where you have to spend decades greasing political palms and earning brownie points with those who matter, before you can even be considered for a minor position.  And if you are not from a political dynasty, you can forget about making a difference. The most you can achieve is land a secondary or tertiary position and enrich your own coterie with favours. Thus perpetuating the system.

The Indian blogosphere is abuzz with quite a few searching for India's Obama. I have a question for them, when was the last time they went out and voted in a general election? Did they ever take part in the political process? Do they feel that there is something wrong with a process which constantly rewards corruption and divisive politics? Do they consider themselves good citizens and fulfill their civic obligations?

It is good to seek change when one is sick and tired of the rot that one sees all around. The answer is not in seeking out a single leader who might or might not fulfill our aspirations, but changing ourselves and the system so that this becomes a constant process which rewards virtue and weeds out undesirable elements. Remember that the cost of maintaining a good political environment is constant vigilance on the part of the electorate. The problem is that most of us have become indifferent and disillusioned with politics as it is practised in India today.

So we want to be spoon-fed Obamas, right? Like chicks in our cosy nests, we look upwards with beaks open, waiting for some imaginary mama-bird to provide us with an Obama. Well, I have news for you. You are not baby-chicks any more. Our democracy is 60 years old. And it is YOU who has to work towards making it better. If you don't do that, you get what you deserve.

Redistribution of Wealth

Cartoon from the Augusta Chronicle. Not much fun when it is YOUR wealth getting spread around.

The 'Uttam' face of Indian Health care

The existing public health care system is not viewed favorably by its potential users in India. There are a number of reasons for that, quality and availability being the foremost. In both urban and rural areas, people prefer to pay and seek personalized services provided by private physicians, with a human touch, rather than use free treatment at public health centers. Simply because they lack faith in the system and the way it deals with them and if capable, would rather pay for availing health care.

This is where the R.M.P.'s step in. Registered Medical Practitioners outnumber certified medical doctors, especially in small towns and villages, where qualified doctors are loathe to set up practice. And it is easy to get registered. So easy in fact, that Uttam, who could barely read or write, got his registration and started his practice, with all of us, his friends, chipping in to get him started.

Uttam's house was on the same street as ours. His father had died while he was still a toddler and his mother had single-handedly raised him. But even she departed while he was entering his teens. Uttam had dropped out of primary school and had been through several odd jobs until he finally landed a job at a doctor's clinic and learned a few tricks of that trade.

To make a long story short, in a few years, Uttam managed to register himself as an R.M.P. and started his practice in a neighboring village. He would commute daily on his lucky bike, the same one which he rode for his baraat, but that is a tale for another day. He was very good at interpersonal skills and his practice grew quickly. He used to steer clear of trouble by dispensing innocuous medicines and referring complicated cases to qualified doctors, mostly using the placebo effect to cure his patients and build up his reputation.

But all good things come to an end. A couple of years later, he had an aged lady die in his clinic while waiting for her turn to be seen. And although it was not his fault, his dispensary was ransacked and his bike was mangled up and he himself was badly beaten up by the relatives.

This incident shook up Uttam so badly that his next couple of years were again spent doing odd jobs till he finally mustered up enough courage to set up shop once again, but in town this time and only specializing in skin related ailments. Because, he reasoned, no one dies of skin diseases.

He has done nicely ever since. He built a large house for his growing family and a few years back, his daughter graduated from dental college and is now a practicing dentist.

By the way Happy Diwali to one and all!

Marriages are made in heaven

Different societies have different perceptions regarding the institution of marriage. In Islam, marriage is a solemn and sacred social contract between two willing parties which is not irrevocable. While in Christianity, Catholics believe marriage is a sacrament, but protestants do not.

In Hindu cuture, a marriage is traditionally viewed as a sacrament and not a contract. The bond between the partners is supposed to extend across many lives. It is supposed that these souls are enjoined in marriage because of their intertwined Karmas, Which need to be resolved in order for both of them to attain mutual salvation, i.e. Moksha.

Nita's post made me think about my marriage. Ours was an arranged marriage. And we will be completing 29 years of blissful married life in a few days. Sure, we have had our ups and downs and our disagreements, but they were on minor issues which resolved themselves in due course. And whoever was at fault, accepted that gracefully and both moved on with life. No lingering bitterness as far as I can look back.

It was a combination of factors. We were both mentally prepared for marriage and were ready to work towards making it click. Being from the same community and sharing similar backgrounds, outlooks, expectations and goals helped, of course.

Now, when 29 years later, I look at my wife, I feel in my heart that she has become a part of my existence. I can not imagine a life without her. And I know that the feeling is mutual.

Rafta Rafta Wo Meri Hasti Ka Saman Ho Gaye

Those days

I remember the good old days of my childhood.

We lived in a house on the edge of the town on a road which was shaded by regularly spaced, huge banyan trees. There was no other house on the road, beyond ours. Just the high school placed about 50 meters inside from the road and then open empty spaces, till the fields and the orchards began. We used to play in the open grounds and come back home to the smells of a great meal and listened to the radio for half an hour or so before going to bed. Those were the days of Apollos to the moon. And watching 'Purab Aur Paschim' at the only cinema hall in town. When families ate together and lived together. The days of peace, love and happiness. Those were my good old days.

But for our offspring, the present is the good old days. These are the days they will remember when they grow up. The days when they were young and free. The days when they were happy and didn’t know about any problems in their little world. The days when they come home and play with their toys or watch their favorite program on the TV. Or spend hours chatting with their friends on the phone or the internet. The days when small sorrows can bring about a flood of tears, but a moment later, a small joy can bring a wide smile to their faces. The days when they can fall asleep in their warm cosy beds and dream of another beautiful tomorrow. These are their good old days.

I visited my childhood home earlier this year after a gap of about 20 years. All the banyan trees had been cut down and the road was lined with shanty dwellings. Even our childhood home was in a dilapidated state. There were no open spaces left. A slum had sprung up and taken over every available piece of land. But to me it made no difference, because my memories are more associated with the people I grew up with, than the places where I grew up.

One day my children will grow up and revisit the good old days of their childhood. I hope and pray they remember the people and not just the place they grew up around.

Getting it right

Here is a snippet from a letter by Casey Research:

Imagine you’re in America, back in 1970.
Richard Nixon is president. The Beatles have announced their breakup. And the average weekly wage is around $170.
Out of your $170, you’ve managed to save $35, and you want to invest it… but you’re not sure of the best place to put your hard-earned money.
And then, in 1971, Richard Nixon takes the country off the gold standard…
… which means the dollar is no longer tied to the price of gold.
It also means the price of gold is no longer fixed, and can go up according to demand.
You recognize what this change means. So you take your $35 and you buy one ounce of gold.
That’s in 1971.
Thanks to worries over the stability of the economy, and inflation galloping along at around 15% annually… by 1974, your single ounce of gold has risen from $35 an ounce to $195.
That’s a 557% return in just 3 years.
Then, in 1979, the price of gold more than doubles in 12 months – to $400 an ounce.
By 1980, it more than doubles again, to $850… before settling back to $627.
Your $35 has gained 1,719.42%, in one decade.

At the end of 1980, you sell your gold…
… and you’re looking for a new place to invest your money.
One of the things you’ve noticed over the years is that something odd is happening to the balance of the world economy.
You noticed that in the ‘70s, the people who did the best during the oil crises of ‘73 and ’79… were the Japanese car manufacturers. Their smaller, more fuel-efficient vehicles were quickly becoming more popular than the heavy, gas-guzzling American cars.
You also notice that everywhere you look, people are listening in on a new kind of personal stereo… the Walkman… made by Sony.
Confident that Japan is the place to put your investment capital, you invest your $627 into the Nikkei Index in Japan… in 1981.
In the early ‘80s, the Nikkei more than doubles – bolting from a 1975 high of 4000… up to 8000.
From 1983 to 1985 - the Index jumps again, from 8000 to 18,000.
You get the feeling that you should strap yourself in well for this ride, because it’s only going to get more exciting.
And indeed it does.
From 1986 until early 1989, the Nikkei catapults from 18,000 to 28,000…
… and reaches its peak on December 29th, 1989 – at a whopping 38,194.
The $627 you originally invested into the Nikkei is now worth $3,548… that’s an increase of 565.86%.
You jump out of the Nikkei market at the end of 1989 (just before the market collapses, losing 63.5%)… and look around for a safe place to land.

It’s now 1990… and there’s another market starting to make a lot of noise.
In the early ‘90s, there’s a lot of talk about bio-tech companies, and scientific and medical-device firms that are promising to do everything from cloning humans to curing cancer in our lifetime.
Most of the companies at the center of this talk trade on the smaller, electronic stock market called NASDAQ… and you like what you hear.
So you take your $3,548 and move it all into the NASDAQ Index.
The NASDAQ exchange is doing okay – but in 1994, the computer age takes firm hold… and soon after that, the Internet revolution takes the market by storm.
In 1996, the NASDAQ is sitting at 600.
On March 10th, 2000, the NASDAQ peaks at 5132.52.
Your’ $3,548 is now worth $35,105.

But you’re hearing a lot of talk about the Internet and the “New Economy,” and how the old business models are no longer applicable to the new Internet age… recessions and market corrections are a thing of the past…
This “irrational exuberance” makes you nervous… so you take your money out of the market – just before the meltdown.

Now what?
You look for another vehicle, and realize there is only one place to put your money for the new millennium… and you set your sights on energy.
Specifically, crude oil.
This final investment of your four-decade adventure proves to be one of your finest.
The crude markets are fairly tame in the early part of this century…
… but we all know what happens next.
Your $35,105 invested in crude oil gives you one of the great moon-shots of all time…
That humble $35 you began with originally in 1970 – has ballooned to $159,591.

Here’s how it would look all laid out on a chart:

That’s a return on investment of 455,971%.

Provided you get it right four times in a row and entered and exited the market at the perfect times. Which is just not possible for average Joes like you or me.

Show me just one example of someone who has succeeded in doing so and I will show you a million failures.

Though, I have to say, it looks good on paper!

Transport in ancient India

My last post was about the Nilgiri Mountain Train, which was built essentially to transport tea produced on the hills, down to the railhead at Mettupalayam. From where it was transported by rail and then shipped to destinations around the world. But have you ever wondered how and in what manner, cargo was transported in ancient India, before the railways were built by the English?

According to Ashraf Khan’s ‘Dakshin Bharat’: “In the regime of KrishnaDev Rai in South India, every thing was brought in Vijaynagar laden on oxen. Daily 2 thousand oxen used to enter the gates of Vijayanagar with goods laden on them”.

This was the mode of transport in ancient India. The Banjaras had almost a monopoly on this trade and were trusted and sought after to supply armies during wars as well as carrying out normal cargo transport during peacetime.

All kings and warlords in ancient times needed the logistics support provided by the Banjara tribes and understood the need to maintain good relations with them. Chhatrapati Shivaji reportedly came to meet Aurangzeb at Agra in 1666 with 500 oxen and 100 Banjaras. He also employed Banjaras with a huge herd of oxen for transporting the loot from Surat in 1664 and 1670.

The Banjaras became rich and powerful plying their trade and they are mentioned in almost all folklore of that era. The Sagar Lake around which the city of Sagar in Madhya Pradesh is constucted is reputed to have been built by one Lakha Banjara.

The Banjaras were on the move with their pack herds of oxen, nine months a year and only returned to their villages or 'tanda's to spend the monsoon. The advent of the railways spelled an end to this community's nomadic way of life and it took up various trades and professions including agriculture for its livelihood.

You can find more information about this nomadic tribe here, if you are so inclined.